The Christmas Oddsmaking Recap

A few days ago I made my first attempt at handicapping my potential Christmas presents- let's see how I did!

• Outside Magazine subscription: 2/1
• A good bet as it makes things easy for my brother in-law's brother.

I was pretty sure about this one, but I was wrong. I got an Amazon gift certificate instead, which I'll probably use...to renew my subscription.

• Two tickets to a Red Sox game: 15/1
• Not confident in this one, but if it happens, my sister will be behind it.

I'm going to count this one as "correct."

• Digital Camera: 5/2
• This is the most likely to be my "big gift" this year.

I definitely made the wrong call here.

• Any of the IKEA items on my list: 50/1
• Too expensive and too inconvenient to acquire. I'll drop the odds to 25/1 on the kitchen table/chairs or a gift card.

Not only was I correct, I got the reasoning right too!

• Items from my Amazon wish list: 3/2
• These are the cheap, "go to" gifts for those who can't come up with anything else.

I got a movie on my list.

• Seinfeld/Family Guy/Simpson's seasons on DVD: 4/1
• I should probably give higher odds on these, but somebody might come through.

I got season 3 of the Simpson's.

• Duvet Cover: 2/1
• Almost a lock, if Mom finds a bargain it will be a done deal.

Mom found a bargain.

• Small Humidifier: 6/1
• This would be so practical it would almost hurt my feelings so I'm going to have faith in my family and put a little longer odds on it than I probably should.

My family had no problem hurting my feelings.

• Shoes from Zappos: 10/1
• Even the lack of risk (free shipping/free return shipping) in getting the wrong size will not allay the fears of certain people in my family have of ordering online.

Correct again.

• Wireless router for my iBook: 3/1
• I could probably shorten the odds even more on this because my brother (the software engineer) will likely be able to acquire one at a criminally low price.

My brother actually paid full price for it!

• House plant: 1/1
• The time of year might work against this, but at worst, I'm sure I'll get a gift certificate for one.

Nope.

• GPS unit for hiking: 25/1
• Too many variables for some people to consider purchasing it.

Winner!

• Step stool: 1/1
• Inexpensive and practical- too hard to resist.

Surprisingly, not.

So, 9 correct, 4 incorrect. Not bad if I do say so myself! See you at birthday time!