Wednesday, December 26, 2007

The Christmas Oddsmaking Recap

A few days ago I made my first attempt at handicapping my potential Christmas presents- let's see how I did!
  • Outside Magazine subscription: 2/1
    • A good bet as it makes things easy for my brother in-law's brother.
I was pretty sure about this one, but I was wrong. I got an Amazon gift certificate instead, which I'll probably renew my subscription.
  • Two tickets to a Red Sox game: 15/1
    • Not confident in this one, but if it happens, my sister will be behind it.
I'm going to count this one as "correct."
  • Digital Camera: 5/2
    • This is the most likely to be my "big gift" this year.
I definitely made the wrong call here.
  • Any of the IKEA items on my list: 50/1
    • Too expensive and too inconvenient to acquire. I'll drop the odds to 25/1 on the kitchen table/chairs or a gift card.
Not only was I correct, I got the reasoning right too!
  • Items from my Amazon wish list: 3/2
    • These are the cheap, "go to" gifts for those who can't come up with anything else.
I got a movie on my list.
  • Seinfeld/Family Guy/Simpson's seasons on DVD: 4/1
    • I should probably give higher odds on these, but somebody might come through.
I got season 3 of the Simpson's.
  • Duvet Cover: 2/1
    • Almost a lock, if Mom finds a bargain it will be a done deal.
Mom found a bargain.

  • Small Humidifier: 6/1
    • This would be so practical it would almost hurt my feelings so I'm going to have faith in my family and put a little longer odds on it than I probably should.
My family had no problem hurting my feelings.

  • Shoes from Zappos: 10/1
    • Even the lack of risk (free shipping/free return shipping) in getting the wrong size will not allay the fears of certain people in my family have of ordering online.
Correct again.

  • Wireless router for my iBook: 3/1
    • I could probably shorten the odds even more on this because my brother (the software engineer) will likely be able to acquire one at a criminally low price.
My brother actually paid full price for it!

  • House plant: 1/1
    • The time of year might work against this, but at worst, I'm sure I'll get a gift certificate for one.

  • GPS unit for hiking: 25/1
    • Too many variables for some people to consider purchasing it.

  • Step stool: 1/1
    • Inexpensive and practical- too hard to resist.
Surprisingly, not.

So, 9 correct, 4 incorrect. Not bad if I do say so myself! See you at birthday time!

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