The Christmas Betting Line

That's right, it's the fourth annual Christmas List odds!

Last year was my best so far: 5 correct predictions, 2 incorrect predictions, and one "push."

One change this year: instead of doing proper "odds," I'm going to go with percentages- anything above 50% means I think I'll get it, anything lower than 50% means I don't think I'll get it.

So here's this year's list and my predictions:

Four books by Ross MacDonald, all will be available at Amazon starting on Dec. 7: “Blue City,” “Meet Me at the Morgue,” “The Three Roads,” and “The Ferguson Affair.”

100%: I won't get them all, but I'll get at least one.

Peerless 76950 2-in-1 Shower System (Chrome)

20%: There's always a chance, but it's a little pricey, non-essential, and frankly, who wants to be the person who buys somebody a shower head for Christmas?

Magic Chef .9 Cubic Foot Microwave Oven in Red (MCD990R)

50%: I'm hedging on this one. Mom's been good about stuff like this in the last few years (the George Foreman grill from last year being a good example.) so it's "possible," but perhaps not "probable."

Indoor/Outdoor Digital Thermometer

100%: Of all the things on the list this year, this is the lock. Not expensive, practical, and easy to "farm out" to a relative or friend who has no idea what to get me.

“Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood” for PS3

50%: This one is tough I've been right and wrong about PS3 games in the past. What I do know is that if I do get it my brother will be the one who buys it for me.

PlayStation “Move” Starter Bundle

65%: Two weeks ago I would have said maybe 30%, but my Mom asked me some questions about it at Thanksgiving, so I'm inclined to think she might make it happen.

Gift Certificates to any of the following: EMS, REI, Old Navy, Borders, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, IKEA, Marshall's/TJMaxx, iTunes, or Target.

100%: I'll get at least one from Amazon and I WILL NOT get one from IKEA- Mom had a bad experience with them last year.

“The African Queen” BluRay Disc.

70%: I feel pretty good about this one- it's the only movie on my list and I always seem to get a movie from somebody.

Post-It notes in assorted colors/sizes.

100%: Lock.

Room credits for the cruise.

75%: I not only think I'll get these, I'm going to say that I'll get them from at least two people.

Roadpro 12V, 2 Outlet Platinum Series Fused Cigarette Lighter Adapter.

100%: Cheap and practical, another gift that is easily farmed out.

“Otis Blue/Otis Redding Sings Soul” (CD)

100%: My spies tell me it was already purchased.

Pure Komachi 2 Series 8” Bread Knife (Orange)

50%: I split the difference because I'm sure I'll get a bread knife but I'm not confident that I'll get this one- even though it's under $10!

Salomon XT S-Lab 3 Sneakers (size 10)

0%: Not a chance in hell- too expensive- but you've got to take a chance, right?

Iomega eGo 1TB USB 2.0 FireWire 800 Desktop External Hard Drive, Mac Edition - 34794

15%: This is another one that I probably won't get, but if I do, my brother will be responsible.

I'll be back in three weeks with the results!